“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” – Herbert Stein Stein wasn’t writing about cheap money, cheap energy, or unrestrained government spending, but he might as well have been. All three assumptions are being tested. While that adjustment could bring some near-term turbulence, it would mark a welcome return to an […]
“I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” – Sir Isaac Newton A new company recently went public. Its extensive dealings with the government and promises to capture markets in entire new worlds have electrified the populace. Its shares are the talk of the town, immediately shooting […]
“Our civilization is wholly dependent on the massive and continuous flows of energy… Energy is the essential ingredient of all the materials that define the modern world.” – Vaclav Smil, How the World Really Works After three consecutive strong years for the broader market, we suspected 2026 would be a wilder one. Boy, […]
“Debt is one person’s liability, but another person’s asset.” – Paul Krugman Last year we said a third year of more than 20% performance in the general market would be unusual. We didn’t quite get above 20%, but the market sure came close with the S&P 500 returning 17.86% for 2025. If you […]
“The markets are always throwing a party somewhere, but you better know when to leave before the cops show up.” – Jim Rogers Fall is in the air. The weather is beginning to turn cooler, football season is underway, and optimism abounds on Wall Street. In fact, the S&P 500 has never been higher […]
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. — Mark Twain With Iran on the front page of newspapers, worries about inflation, a president pressuring the Fed to reduce rates, gold prices rising, protests cropping up and quelled with force, and federal budget deficits that seem unsustainable, we wouldn’t blame you for wondering […]
“An economy built on endless consumption and debt is fundamentally unsustainable.” – Ray Dalio Things that are unsustainable, by definition, must change. Decades of unchecked government spending, coupled with a lack of fiscal restraint, have pushed the U.S. balance sheet to its limits. Too much debt restrains economic growth, limits the flexibility for countercyclical […]
“I’m not worried about the deficit. It’s big enough to take care of itself.” – Ronald Reagan The stock markets closed out 2024 with another strong year, the second consecutive year with an over-20% gain in the S&P 500 Index. It should be noted that such back-to-back strong years are the exception and […]
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith While jokes about wrong-way economic projections almost write themselves – like the time inflation was confidently called “transitory” just before spiking to 9% – this quarter, central bankers both home and abroad reminded us of their power […]
“The least productive people are usually the ones who are most in favor of holding meetings” — Robert Solow, American Economist The world is abuzz with a groundbreaking technology promising immense productivity gains. Every company is exploring it. Startups are popping up all over the place to take advantage of it. One company has […]
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