“The markets are always throwing a party somewhere, but you better know when to leave before the cops show up.” – Jim Rogers Fall is in the air. The weather is beginning to turn cooler, football season is underway, and optimism abounds on Wall Street. In fact, the S&P 500 has never been higher […]
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. — Mark Twain With Iran on the front page of newspapers, worries about inflation, a president pressuring the Fed to reduce rates, gold prices rising, protests cropping up and quelled with force, and federal budget deficits that seem unsustainable, we wouldn’t blame you for wondering […]
“An economy built on endless consumption and debt is fundamentally unsustainable.” – Ray Dalio Things that are unsustainable, by definition, must change. Decades of unchecked government spending, coupled with a lack of fiscal restraint, have pushed the U.S. balance sheet to its limits. Too much debt restrains economic growth, limits the flexibility for countercyclical […]
“I’m not worried about the deficit. It’s big enough to take care of itself.” – Ronald Reagan The stock markets closed out 2024 with another strong year, the second consecutive year with an over-20% gain in the S&P 500 Index. It should be noted that such back-to-back strong years are the exception and […]
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith   While jokes about wrong-way economic projections almost write themselves – like the time inflation was confidently called “transitory” just before spiking to 9% – this quarter, central bankers both home and abroad reminded us of their power […]
“The least productive people are usually the ones who are most in favor of holding meetings” — Robert Solow, American Economist The world is abuzz with a groundbreaking technology promising immense productivity gains. Every company is exploring it. Startups are popping up all over the place to take advantage of it. One company has […]
“You ask what is our aim? I can answer in one word: Victory. Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror; victory, however long and hard the road may be. For without victory there is no survival.”  – Winston Churchill Fed Chair Jay Powell is no Winston Churchill. For all intents and […]
“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight.” – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre As we close out 2023, the tumult of a brutal 2022 when stocks and bonds both went down substantially seems far away. Once […]
“The ideal policy would bring about a soft landing, with inflation subsiding without a recession. But this is a difficult task to accomplish.” – Robert Hafer, St. Louis Fed, May 1971 The above quote is thought to be the first time that the aeronautic term was applied to economics. It has since become […]
“When you are in the eye of the storm, you are often not aware of the whiplash around you.” — Hugh Bonneville In the last quarter, a sense of calm has come over the equity markets. The tumult of the first quarter of 2023, with its bank failures and high equity volatility, has […]
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