“The ideal policy would bring about a soft landing, with inflation subsiding without a recession. But this is a difficult task to accomplish.” – Robert Hafer, St. Louis Fed, May 1971 The above quote is thought to be the first time that the aeronautic term was applied to economics. It has since become […]
Category: newsletter
Client Investment Letter July 2023
“When you are in the eye of the storm, you are often not aware of the whiplash around you.” — Hugh Bonneville In the last quarter, a sense of calm has come over the equity markets. The tumult of the first quarter of 2023, with its bank failures and high equity volatility, has […]
Client Investment Letter April 2023
“There is a lot of stuff we can’t control, but it is completely in our power to decide what the definition of a good job is. That’s up to us.” – Mike Rowe There was an old show on the Discovery Channel called Dirty Jobs where the host, Mike Rowe, traveled around the country […]
Client Investment Letter January 2023
“[Interest rates] act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter: The higher the rate, the greater the downward pull.” – Warren Buffett The path towards normalizing interest rates in 2022 reasserted the force of gravity on asset prices. Since 2008, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have engaged in extremely low […]
Client Investment Letter October 2022
“Inflation is running too hot. You don’t need to know much more than that.” – Fed Chairman Jay Powell The third quarter marked the beginning of a paradigm shift as investors began questioning the path of inflation and the resolve of the central bank in responding. Since the days of Alan Greenspan, the Fed’s […]
Client Investment Letter July 2022
“We suffer more often in imagination than reality.” – Seneca, Roman philosopher We all hate uncertainty. Oftentimes we dislike it more than any of the potential outcomes. There was a study published in Nature in 2016 that demonstrated that the uncertainty of getting a small electric shock was much more stressful for people than knowing […]
Client Investment Letter April 2022
“He who wishes to fight must first count the cost.” – Sun Tzu It was an eventful quarter, to say the least, with two wars breaking out: a war in Eastern Europe and a “monetary war” here at home against overheating inflation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought to the forefront geopolitical risk, the fragility of […]
Client Investment Letter January 2022
“It’s like dĂ©jĂ vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra Another year has drawn to a close, and yet it all seems very familiar. Stock prices are still rising with the S&P 500 logging all-time highs, earnings are still recovering from the lock-down depths, the Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion is setting new records, and […]
Client Investment Letter October 2021
“There is nothing permanent except change.” – Heraclitus Heraclitus probably didn’t imagine future capital markets when he is thought to have said the quote above, but his ancient Greek wisdom remains applicable. Nothing in the markets is eternal, and in our opinion some previously popular views that have sustained the market are beginning to wobble. […]
Client Investment Letter July 2021
“He can thread a needle with a well-turned phrase.” – Don Hewitt, creator of 60 Minutes The Federal Reserve is in a tight spot. Having “saved the world” with extremely aggressive policy action during the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. economy is now recovering rapidly. It is improving so quickly, in fact, that shortages of key […]
